The conversation about people moving in and out of Massachusetts has become something of a yearly tradition — usually involving a worried headline, a debate about taxes, and a follow-up piece reminding everyone that the picture is more complicated than it looks. The 2025 numbers are now in, and they’re worth a closer read, especially for those of us living along the 93 and Route 3 corridors, where the migration story plays out in driveways and “For Sale” signs every week.
The Headline Number
The U.S. Census Bureau released estimates in late January showing that Massachusetts lost a net 33,340 residents to other states between July 2024 and July 2025 — a jump from the roughly 19,200 net loss recorded the year before. That puts Massachusetts fifth nationally for domestic out-migration, behind California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey.
But — and this is the part that often gets lost — the state’s overall population still grew. Births outpaced deaths by about 8,400, and international immigration added roughly 40,000 new residents, bringing Massachusetts to an estimated 7.15 million people.
In short: more people moved out to other states than moved in, but immigration from abroad and natural growth kept the state in the plus column overall.
Where People Are Going
For the last few years, the destinations have been remarkably consistent. The most recent Census migration data show roughly:
- Florida — ~21,000 Massachusetts residents
- New Hampshire — ~20,000 (up from ~16,400 the year before)
- New York — ~18,000
- California — ~16,000
- Connecticut and Rhode Island — ~11,500 each
New Hampshire stands out for being especially close to home — and especially relevant for those of us at the top of the corridor in Andover, North Andover, Methuen, and Dracut. Bay Staters are the #1 source of new New Hampshire residents — no other state contributes more. According to the New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute, the Granite State’s recent population growth has depended almost entirely on net in-migration, with Massachusetts as the biggest single contributor.
Why People Are Leaving (It’s More Complicated Than the Headlines)
The popular narrative is that taxes and housing costs are pushing everyone out. The data is messier and more interesting than that.
The United Van Lines 2025 National Movers Study, which surveys actual customers, ranked Massachusetts #7 nationally for outbound moves, with 55% of the company’s in-state moves heading out. When asked why, here’s what movers said:
- 23% — to be closer to family
- 22% — for a new job
- 15% — retirement
- Only 6% cited cost as the primary reason
That’s a very different picture from what political headlines might suggest. Life events, not pure economics, lead that survey.
That said, the Mass Opportunity Alliance ran a separate survey of nearly 500 former Massachusetts residents now living in Florida or New Hampshire. There, more than two-thirds cited the cost of living — housing, taxes, groceries — as a reason for leaving, and roughly half pointed to dissatisfaction with state policies.
The honest read is that both are true. People rarely leave for one clean reason. A move usually combines a new job in Raleigh that also happens to be cheaper, a retirement to Florida that also brings tax advantages, or a move to be near grandkids in southern New Hampshire that also happens to come with no income tax. Cost-of-living concerns are real, but they often sit alongside life events that would have triggered a move anyway.
BU finance professor Mark Williams has identified taxes, housing costs, and healthcare expenses as the top three drivers of Massachusetts out-migration. Some economists add temperature and traffic to the list — the “Three Ts” or “Four Ts,” depending on who’s counting.
Who’s Moving In
The departures get the headlines, but the arrivals matter too. Massachusetts gained more than 152,000 residents from other states in the same period — it’s just that 182,000 left. According to United Van Lines, the people who did move into Massachusetts in 2025 cited a job as their top reason, followed by family.
That’s the Massachusetts story in one line: people come here for opportunity, and people leave for affordability and life-stage reasons.
International immigration is the other piece of the puzzle. Through most of the early 2020s, immigration from abroad more than offset domestic losses. That changed sharply in the most recent year — net international migration to Massachusetts fell from about 78,000 the prior year to roughly 40,000 in 2025, a drop tied to federal policy changes. With domestic out-migration up and international migration sharply down, the state’s overall growth has slowed to a trickle.
What This Looks Like Along the 93 and Route 3 Corridors
Statewide trends are one thing. The picture in our corner of the map — from Medford and Malden up through Woburn, Winchester, Stoneham, Reading, Wakefield, Burlington, and Lexington, out to Wilmington, Billerica, Tewksbury, Chelmsford, North Reading, Andover, North Andover, Dracut, and Methuen — is another.
These corridor communities are not where the out-migration story plays out hardest. The towns losing the most are elsewhere; in the New Bedford–Fall River area, for instance, United Van Lines found 63% of its moves were outbound. Our corridor tells a different story.
A few snapshots from the local data:
- Winchester remains among the “blue-chip” suburbs that have stayed largely insulated from broader cooling. Premium single-family homes there often transact in the mid-to-high seven figures, with much of the 2025 single-family activity landing in roughly the $1.7–$1.9 million range.
- Medford and Malden — our inner-ring towns closest to Boston — continue to benefit from improved transit access thanks to the Green Line Extension, which has made one-seat rail commutes downtown realistic for many neighborhoods.
- Woburn, Reading, Wakefield, and Stoneham remain steady mid-corridor markets, with strong fundamentals — school systems, commuter rail, and I-93 access — continuing to draw buyers from inside and outside the area.
- Burlington and Lexington anchor the higher end of the central corridor. Lexington in particular has held its blue-chip status, and Burlington’s commercial corridor and Route 3 access continue to draw working families.
- Andover and North Andover retain strong demand, anchored by Andover’s thriving red-brick downtown and the I-93/I-495 interchange that makes commutes flexible in several directions.
- Chelmsford stands out as something of a value play in the corridor — perched at Route 3 and I-495, with many listings still below $800,000 in a region where that’s become harder to find.
- Wilmington, Billerica, Tewksbury, North Reading, Dracut, and Methuen round out the outer corridor, where buyers priced out of inner-ring suburbs are increasingly looking for more space within a manageable commute. North Reading saw modest median price softening in 2025; most of the others held steady or grew.
Inventory remains tight across most of the corridor, and while a number of communities saw modest price softening in 2025, well-priced, well-prepared homes continue to move quickly.
Analysts have started calling this a “two-speed market.” Towns with strong schools, reasonable commutes, and established community fabric — much of the 93/Route 3 corridor — continue to draw buyers. Towns farther out, or with longer commutes and weaker fundamentals, are feeling the cooling more directly.
What It Means If You’re Thinking About a Move
A few takeaways for anyone weighing a decision:
The “everyone’s leaving Massachusetts” narrative is overstated — at least along our corridor. The blue-chip suburbs are still highly competitive, and well-priced homes in our towns are still moving quickly. If you’re thinking about selling, this remains a strong market.
The North of Boston–to–southern New Hampshire pipeline is real, but worth doing the math on. This is especially relevant for readers in Andover, North Andover, Methuen, and Dracut, right up against the NH line. If you’re considering NH primarily for the tax difference, run the full numbers. Property taxes there are often higher than people expect, and housing costs in southern New Hampshire have risen sharply as Massachusetts buyers continue to head north. The savings aren’t always what they appear on a tax-rate chart.
For buyers moving in, this is a market that rewards preparation. Inventory remains tight, and the most desirable homes still see real competition. Pre-approval, clarity on the towns and neighborhoods that fit your life, and a good local agent matter more than ever.
The Massachusetts migration story is, in the end, a story about tradeoffs — between affordability and opportunity, between cost and community, between the warmer winters of Florida and the school district your kids would actually be in. The data is worth knowing. But it doesn’t replace the more local question that every individual move comes down to: does this place fit my life right now?
For most of our neighbors along the 93 and Route 3 corridors, the answer continues to be yes.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025 Population Estimates; United Van Lines 2025 National Movers Study; Mass Opportunity Alliance / Pioneer Institute; UMass Donahue Institute; New Hampshire Fiscal Policy Institute; Boston Globe and Boston.com coverage, 2025–2026.
